A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."